TRIADs - how have you done so far?
The second-half of the 20-21 TRIAD season has just kicked off.
Whether you are a TRIAD chaser (export electricity) or an avoider (import electricity) it is worth checking how you are doing at half-time as one first-half TRIAD usually gets onto the final scoresheet. Elexon publish two sets of peak demand data that tell us which dates and times are most likely to be a TRIAD so far:
TRIAD Demand (Settlement Metering)
04/11/20 41.1GW at 17:00
25/11/20 41.6GW at 17:00
07/12/20 44.4GW at 17:00
Indicative Peak Demand (Operational Metering)
25/11/20 43.5GW at 17:00
08/12/20 46.5GW at 17:00
22/12/20 43.3GW at 17:00
The TRIAD season ends on 28/02/21 so there is still time for new dates to get onto the list and National Grid usually publish the final dates and times by the end of March. However, whilst it is possible, it is rare for the dates to vary from what is published by the above sources in early March.
The highest ever TRIAD demand was 59.5GW in December 2007 but they have fallen steadily since 2010 and the demand in season 19-20 ranged from 43.5-44.3GW. Of course, this winter is different for many reasons not least the impact of Coronavirus restrictions. But it is also the first TRIAD season that many embedded generators no longer receive TRIAD income. Whilst this gives embedded generators less incentive to run when there is a TRIAD warning, the commodity price should still be high enough for most of them to run anyway so I doubt there will be much impact overall.
If 04/11/20 did make it on to the final list it would be the earliest on record but this is unlikely as, at 41.1GW, the demand was quite low. If Coronavirus restrictions depress electricity demand through January and into early February we might even see the first season on record with all three TRIADs in the first-half of the season but I doubt this will happen.
We will have to wait for 2 months to see the preliminary season end results and 3 months for the definitive results. In the meantime keep an eye out for TRIAD alerts fomr your electricity supplier.
Even though you might not see ‘TRIAD charge’ listed separately on your electricity bill it does form part of what you pay. Contact me if you want to discuss how you can avoid these costs or any other energy related matter.
Tel. 07971111053
